Baftas Betting 2024: Who’s Favourite In The Main Categories?
Daire Walsh
It is a few weeks away yet, but with the awards season very much gathering pace, betting sites are taking a keen interest in the 77th British Academy Film Awards (known more commonly as the BAFTAs).
Seen as a precursor of sort to the Academy Awards, this year’s BAFTAs will be hosted by David Tennant – a BAFTA Cymru and BAFTA Scotland winner himself in the past for his TV work on Doctor Who and The Escape Artist – at the Royal Festival Hall in London on February 18.
While there are just five nominations for Best Film at the BAFTAs, in stark contrast to the 10 productions that have been shortlisted for Best Picture at the Academy Awards in America, both categories share the same overwhelming favourite.
Oppenheimer Expected To Take Away Best Film BAFTA
The 12th entry in the filmography of director Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer is rated at 1/14 with Unibet to come away with the Best Film prize at next month’s BAFTAs.
Bet365 are offering the slightly longer odds of 1/7, but there is no doubt that the biographical story of theoretical physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer and his work on The Manhattan Project is expected to emerge triumphant in this particular category.
Like at the Oscars, the odds on the remaining contenders for this BAFTA are much longer, with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon and Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things leading the chasing pack at the moment.
Adapted from David Grann’s non-fiction book about The Osage Murders and the birth of the FBI, Killers of the Flower Moon is currently available at odds that range from 10/1 to 12/1 for the Best Film award.
There is a similar value being placed on Poor Things emerging with the main BAFTA prize and with 11 nominations in total across a variety of categories, it would be foolish to rule it out completely.
A French legal drama that won two Golden Globes for Best Screenplay and Best Foreign Language Film, Anatomy of a Fall has also made the five-strong shortlist for Best Film at the BAFTAs.
As it stands, the latest offering from Justine Triet is available at odds of 17/1 on specials betting sites.
Centring around an American boarding school in the early 1970s, The Holdovers is another film that is in the reckoning for this category.
Though it probably only has an outside chance of upsetting Oppenheimer and the other challengers, BetUK are offering 14/1 on it being honoured with the Best Film BAFTA.
Nolan The Favourite For Best Director Gong
The six-strong Best Director category is arguably more varied with Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Bradley Cooper (Maestro) and Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers) all shortlisted for releases that aren’t nominated for Best Film.
Because of this, however, they find themselves as outside bets at best in the eyes of some betting apps on the market.
Rated at 12/1 and 18/1 respectively with Bet365, Glazer and Cooper are unlikely to upset the apple cart when it comes to the best directorial work of the film season.
Similarly, Haigh is available at the even longer odds of 20/1 with Unibet, while Alexander Payne is only seen as a 25/1 possibility by the same bookmaker for The Holdovers.
It is slightly surprising that Christopher Nolan hasn’t been honoured by the BAFTAs for his directing before, but this is expected to change on February 18.
After previously missing out for Inception and Dunkirk, he is now seen as an astonishing 1/14 certainty to secure a Best Director BAFTA for Oppenheimer.
Murphy Leading The Race For Best Actor
It could prove to be a night to remember for this particular film as Cillian Murphy is also the overwhelming favourite to take home the Best Actor award for his work as the eponymous Oppenheimer.
A first-time nominee in the category (though he was nominated for a Rising Star all of 17 years ago), Irish native Murphy is available at 1/5 with 10bet, but can be found at the even shorter odds of 1/10.
If there is to be an upset in this category, then Paul Giamatti seems the most likely to pull it off for his stellar performance in The Holdovers.
A first-time nominee at the BAFTAs, Giamatti is available at 13/2 with Unibet and BetUK for the Best Actor gong.
Up for consideration after missing out on the same category at the Oscars, Murphy’s fellow Irishman (and former Dunkirk co-star) Barry Keoghan (28/1) is the fourth favourite behind Maestro’s impressive multi-tasker Bradley Cooper (11/1).
Despite also being nominated for an Oscar for his titular portrayal in Rustin, Colman Domingo is a firm outside bet at odds that range from 25/1 to 50/1.
Meanwhile, the shortest value to be found on Teo Yoo for his acclaimed performance in Past Lives is 33/1 with Unibet.
The German-South Korean actor is available at the even longer odds of 80/1 with Bet365, but when you consider the recognition he has gained for his latest acting role, we could be hearing a lot more from him in the next few years.
Stone Out In Front For Best Actress Award
For the Academy Awards in March, Lily Gladstone is seen as the main Best Actress challenger to Poor Things’ Emma Stone for her role in The Killers of the Flower Moon.
However, the absence of the Native American star from the BAFTAs shortlist has helped to make Stone a strong favourite with the bookies.
For her performance as the child-like Bella Baxter, the Arizona native is available at a short price of 8/15.
Yet Sandra Huller is seen as a major contender for Anatomy of a Fall as five different bookmakers rate her as a 13/8 possibility for a Best Actress BAFTA.
Like at the Oscars and the Golden Globes, Carey Mulligan has also made the BAFTAs cut for playing Felicia Montealegre in Maestro – a film that saw her claiming top billing ahead of her own director, Bradley Cooper.
She is available at odds that range from 9/1 to 18/1 and the Londoner will be hoping to add to her win in the same category for An Education 14 years ago.
Of the remaining nominees, Barbie’s Margot Robbie (whose lack of a Best Actress nomination for the Oscars sparked plenty of debate) is the one with the best chance of a surprise win, though the best odds on the Australian are 33/1 with Bet365.
With the same bookmaker, Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are clear outsiders at 33/1 and 40/1 respectively.