Ireland v Tonga: Latest Odds & Analysis On Tonga Test
When: Saturday, September 16, 8pm (Irish time)
Where: Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes (capacity: 35,322)
Watch: RTE
Best Odds: Ireland 1/100, Tonga 25/1
Following their record 82-8 victory against Romania in Bordeaux last weekend, rugby betting sites are looking into Ireland’s forthcoming Pool B encounter against Tonga on Saturday evening (kick-off 8pm Irish time) in Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes at the Rugby World Cup.
Previously the biggest winning margin registered by Ireland in the RWC was their 64-7 success at the expense of Namibia in the 2003 pool stages.
On that occasion, Alan Quinlan and Eric Miller bagged a brace of tries to follow up another triumph over Romania eight days earlier.
Fast forward 20 years later and it was the latter who were on the receiving end of an even more emphatic demolition at Stade de Bordeaux.
Like Quinlan and Miller a couple of decades before, returning team captain Jonathan Sexton, Bundee Aki, Peter O’Mahony and Tadhg Beirne all claimed two tries apiece to ensure the Green Army got their 2023 World Cup campaign off to a flying start.
Jamison-Gibson Park, Hugo Keenan, Rob Herring and Joe McCarthy all crossed the whitewash as Andy Farrell’s men overcame the concession of a second-minute try to secure maximum points in style.
Farrell Showed A Strong Hand For Opening Win Over Romania
As the No.1 ranked team in world rugby for well over a year at this stage, there are big things expected of Ireland at this tournament.
While tougher tests lie in wait, it is important that they displayed a degree of ruthlessness on their first day out.
Despite facing a team that are ranked 18 places below them, Farrell selected a very strong team last weekend.
From the starting line-up that sealed a Six Nations Grand Slam against England on March 18 at the Aviva Stadium, 10 of them were also amongst the first 15 against Romania.
Of those who came into the side, Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Tadhg Beirne and Rob Herring are a vastly-experienced quartet, while 22-year-old lock Joe McCarthy is earmarked as a player for the future if not the present.
Tonga Will Provide A Stern Test With Some Big World Cup Performances In Their Locker
Although only positioned four places above them in the rankings, it is anticipated that Tonga will pose a far stiffer challenge in Nantes than the one served up by Romania.
With the exception of the 1991 finals – co-hosted by Ireland – the Tongans have participated in all remaining editions of the Rugby World Cup.
They are yet to progress beyond the pool stages of the tournament, but did earn a brace of wins in both the 2007 and 2011 RWCs.
The United States and Samoa were put to the sword by them in the former, which also saw them losing to eventual champions South Africa by just five points (30-25).
2011 saw them recording a famous 19-14 victory against France in Wellington and narrowly missing out on a spot in the World Cup knockout rounds.
The French pipped them in the final Pool A standings by just two points and proceeded to reach the Webb Ellis Cup decider against host nation New Zealand.
They also ran France to just two points in the pool stages of the 2019 World Cup and it is clear that the Polynesians aren’t afraid to mix it with the big boys in the international arena.
Ireland Still Strongly Fancied To Come Through Against Tongans
Nevertheless, Ireland come into Saturday’s game on a 14-game winning streak and are understandably overwhelming favourites to come out on top of their latest meeting.
Thus far in test rugby, the Irish have recorded two wins from as many games against Tonga – scoring 72 points and conceded 28.
Betting apps are of a similar mind for their second duel as an Irish triumph is trading at odds of 1/100.
In spite of their history of pushing tier one nations to the limit, the shortest odds on a Tongan win is 16/1, with the biggest price available being 25/1
Though a draw between these sides shouldn’t be completely ruled out, but betting sites don’t see this as a realistic possibility at odds of 100/1.
Although this is Tonga’s first fixture at the 2023 World Cup and Ireland already have a game under their belts, it is still anticipated that Tonga will put it up to the Six Nations champions for a considerable amount of the action.
Margin Of Victory Should Be Much Smaller In Ireland’s Second Game
While there are shorter odds on them winning by a greater margin, the 7/1 being offered by some bookies on Ireland winning by a margin of between 21 and 25 points could be worth pursuing for interested punters.
For their tournament opener in Bordeaux against the Irish, Romania were 8/1 to be the first team to score in the game.
This is exactly how it panned out with scrum-half Gabriel Rupanu breaking the deadlock off his side’s first significant foray into the opposition ‘22’.
If Romania were able to manage that, then Tonga are more capable of doing the same.
Farrell will have his troops on high alert after the way the Romanian test began, but even if the Tongans (who have 10 players that are currently employed by French clubs) were able to manufacture a penalty early on, it could provide them with an opportunity to open the scoring.
At the time of writing, Bet365 are offering 3/1 on Tonga being the side to score first.
This is a big year for Ireland as they aim to progress beyond the quarter-final stage of the World Cup for the first time and while it isn’t one of the main tournament contenders that awaits them in Nantes.
The physicality that Tonga are expected to bring should ensure that they learn a bit more about themselves on Saturday.
Best Bet: Ireland To Win By 21-25 points – 7/1 @ William Hill
Player Prop: Tonga To Score First – 3/1 @ Bet365